Prescient science fiction

January 18th, 2008 tristan Posted in futurology, science fiction, technology, vernor vinge No Comments »

Having just finished Rainbows End, in which wearable computers, ubiquitous ad-hoc networks and contact lens displays are deeply ingrained in society, I was pleasantly surprised to see that the first contact lens displays have been made. Displays in glasses have been around for a while now, although not good enough for general use. We could be living in an augmented reality soon though.

The other ideas are already coming about too.
Ad-hoc networks are occurring already, some new mobile phones are seeking to take advantage of them, the One Laptop Per Child project is hoping to create one, many handheld consoles make use of ad-hoc networking and Amazon’s Kindle can take advantage of such an infrastructure.

Wearable computing is often talked about, and in a sense we already have such devices in the form of wrist watches. More complex devices are mostly held back by user interface and storage difficulties. Storage is getting smaller and smaller, also, combined with ad-hoc networks you could store information remotely. A usable UI is more challenging and will require a shift away from the desktop GUI model, but will be aided by augmented reality.

Of course, these trends are fairly easy to see as possibilities. Whether they will come about is less certain (where are our jet packs?) and how the world will be changed by them is another matter.

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Current reading

January 10th, 2008 tristan Posted in Mises, books, vernor vinge No Comments »

I have a very bad habit of reading several books at the same time. My new resolution is to try and have only two on the go at once, one which I can just pick up and read in bed the other I need to think about a bit more. Generally this will be fiction and non-fiction, although not always (some non-fiction is easier to read that some fiction).

Currently my two books are:
Rainbow’s End by Vernor Vinge
Ludwig von Mises: The Last Knight of Liberalism by Jorg Guido Hulsmann (pdf available here).

The former is a great Science Fiction book, set in the near future. One of the central characters is a former poet and Nobel Laureate who is recovering from Alzheimer’s and struggling to get to grips with the new world of wearable computing and augmented reality he has entered. The technology itself is fascinating, offering an exciting and scary vision of the future, but the story itself is gripping.
Vinge is definitely my favourite SciFi author at the moment. He’s a computer scientist and mathematician by training (which probably endears me to him) and seeks to explore the consequences of potential technology and human progress. He invented the term ’singularity’ to apply to the possibly forthcoming Technological Singularity, an event in which technological progress becomes so advanced, and so fast, that it transcends our understanding with hyper-intelligent beings (AI or augmented human (or animal) intelligence) creating an exponential rate of change (for one vision of this read Accelrando by Charles Stross, available as a free download).
Vinge also includes many btis of liberal/libertarian philosophy, ranging from anarcho-capitlism in his short story The Ungoverned to the more common theme of trying to combat abuse of power and privilege and gaining individual freedom.
Unfortunately, many of his books aren’t available in the UK (although that seems to be changing), although that does mean it gives my American relatives something to buy me for Christmas and my birthday.

The second book is a biography of Ludwig von Mises, the Austrian (born in what is now the Ukraine) economist and liberal. I am personally attracted to much of the way Austrian economists look at the world, mainly the methodological individualism and the subjectivity of value, and this book provides a great insight into the man who inspires so many Austrian economists and his ideas (and their origins in the marginalism of Carl Menger).
Its not always an easy read, there are some passages where my economic understanding lets me down, and naturally, it doesn’t provide a huge amount of criticism of his positions and ideas.
One particular part of his thinking, which is very important I think, is his utilitarianism. He sought to judge economic policy on whether it attained the outcome which was wanted. This determination to use economics as a tool for understanding the world and finding the right policies often put him in conflict with other economists and especially politicians, it also lead him to advocate policies, for the short term, which you wouldn’t expect, such as increasing the money supply through printing more during the Austrian hyperinflation. He knew the effects of this could be monetary collapse, but he also saw it as the only way to keep order in Vienna until a solution could be found.
So far the story is of a brilliant economist who unfortunately lacked the charisma of others. He fought for liberalism, liberty and freedom and fully deserves his place in the Hall of Freedom and his recognition by the Liberal International.

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