What to expect from Free Trade

January 21st, 2008 tristan Posted in cafe hayek, free trade No Comments »

Here’s an excellent NYT article.

Why should you expect any compensation from the loss of a job due to free trade when you’ve benefited so much more from it in total?

(Of course, this does not negate any idea of helping those made unemployed at all, just no special benefits for those whose job loss is due to trade).

Don Boudreux at the excellent Cafe Hayek has also written a letter defending this position in which he makes the excellent point:

For any worker to complain that he is victimized by trade would be akin, say, to Elvis Presley complaining that he was victimized by radio because that medium did so much to make the Beatles more popular than him.

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Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

March 17th, 2007 tristan Posted in cafe hayek, don boudreaux, statistics, the economist No Comments »

Two good articles about how misleading statistics can be if you don’t look at other factors:

First up is Don Boudreaux who usually writes at Cafe Hayek showing how the oft-quoted statistic of French higher productivity is actually a byproduct of the restrictive employment laws in France leading to less employment for lower skilled, less productive workers. Similarly, an influx of immigrants can lower the average wage, but because they are doing more lower paid, low skill jobs. The situation of native workers does not change.

Second is The Economist blog Free Exchange with an article talking about the higher infant mortality rates in the US. Is this down to a better health care service as opposed to, as is often claimed, the lack of socialised health care? Better health care means there is more artificial insemination leading to more multiple pregnancies, which often incur the loss of at least on baby. Also the higher level of health care can lead to higher levels of premature babies being born rather than miscarried. Since the chances of a premature baby surviving are significantly less this will contribute to higher infant mortality rates.

These are just two examples of the misapplication of statistics.
There are many many more areas where statistics are misapplied, usually to further someone’s prejudice.

Next time someone gives you an impressive or worrying sounding statistic, pause to wonder whether they could be explained by something else.

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The Plural of Anecdote is Not Data: Wise words.

January 9th, 2007 tristan Posted in cafe hayek, evidence, wise words No Comments »

One of those things which irritates me is the way anecdotes are often used as if they prove points (something I’m sure I’ve been guilty of unfortunately). They do not. Anecdotes are useful, but they are not data.

This is a point Don Boudreaux has recently made, and its one which needs to be made often.

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