Peak oil? Not for a long time.
At least according to former oil industry insider and head of the Royal Society of Chemistry Dr Richard Pike.
Current fears are based on misunderstanding of probability and the figures behind companies reports of remaining reserves.
Also, he backs up my view that as oil prices rise more sources become economic, extending supply even further.
It is interesting to note that this does not deter Dr Pike from promoting alternative sources of energy, but he does counsel us not to worry about energy, there’s just so much of it around and we will be able to tap into more and more sources in the near future, even if we aren’t ready to yet.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
September 17th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Check out ‘The Last Oil Shock’ which provides an uncanny description of the inevitable crisis as oil runs out and the description matches currents events rather too much for comfort.
I’m also a sceptic on this but the book makes a very convincing case for planning for change now.
September 17th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Author David Strahan if anyone is interested.
September 17th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
I don’t see how we can believe reserve reporting is always conservative. Just look at the Shell scandal.There are also serious issues in reporting for many of the state oil giants, especially in OPEC. Most estimates for peak oil I have seen do include P50.
Of course, there is more oil in unconventialal reserves, but the costs of extraction increase by multiples for those, as do CO2 emmissions. Furthermore, even if they could keep current production up, that won’t be enough. Prices will go up a long way just on the steep demand increase from the developing world.
I think the doomsayers normally overstate their case. However, simply to declare it a non-issue and assume technological advance will sort it out equally seems hopelessly optimistic and unempirical.