Liberty Alone

Both provide predictions for the outcome. One based upon prediction markets, the other based upon polling.

First up is electoralmap.net which uses the state of play on Intrade’s prediction markets to generate a map of the likely outcomes in each state and overall.
There’s historical maps too so you can see how the market is changing over time.

Second is fivethirtyeight.com which is a really interesting take on poll analysis.
The polls are weighted based upon the track record of the polling company, sample size and how recent the data is. They then perform some regression estimates to reduce the effects of outlier polls and finally they simulate 10,000 elections based upon this data.
I’m not sure how well this works, not being a statistician or a polling expert, but its an interesting approach.

Both have shown a swing to Obama recently, although it is obviously still early days in the campaign (despite what it feels like…).

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